Process Modelling to Support Reliability Estimation

We developed a method to support dependability arguments about the future reliability of a product before there is direct empirical evidence based on the product's development process.

The methods estimates the number of residual faults at the time of release from a "barrier model" of the development process, where in each phase faults are created or detected.

These estimates can be used in a conservative theory in which a reliability bound can be obtained or can be used to support arguments of fault freeness.

Work model was applied to practice: a company that develops safety-critical systems provided access to two projects as well as data over a wide range of past projects. The software development process as enacted was determined and we developed a number of probabilistic process models calibrated with generic data from the literature and from the company projects. The predictive power of the various models was compared.

Read more.